Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026

000
WTNT45 KNHC 222038
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Josephine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2026

The convective cloud pattern of Josephine now resembles that of a 
warm frontal band, with little evidence of tropical-cyclone like 
curvature. In addition, the circulation center is becoming 
elongated and cold-air clouds are increasing in the southern 
semicircle. Based on these developments and the earlier 
scatterometer pass showing a developing frontal boundary, Josephine 
has become an extratropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set 
at 55 kt, and this could be conservative.
 
The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast or 055/15 kt. 
Josephine should move generally northeastward with some increase 
in forward speed tonight, followed by an eastward turn as it 
becomes well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. On the 
forecast track, the center of Josephine will move away from the New 
England states this evening and pass south of Nova Scotia and 
Newfoundland tonight and Saturday. The guidance is again tightly 
clustered, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous 
forecast.

Josephine is expected to strengthen as an extratropical low tonight 
due to the influence of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough 
over eastern Canada and the New England states, with winds reaching 
hurricane force.  After tonight the global dynamical models are in 
good agreement that the cyclone should steadily weaken, and they 
forecast Josephine to dissipate by 72 h as it is absorbed by a new 
low pressure area developing to its northeast. The new intensity 
forecast is based mainly on the global models and again has only 
minor adjustments from the last forecast.  The wind radii forecasts 
have also been revised based on the global model forecasts.

This will be the last advisory on Josephine issued by the National 
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Please also see products from local National Weather Service 
offices and Environment Canada for more information regarding the 
effects of Josephine in coastal areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 40.0N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  23/0600Z 41.3N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/1800Z 42.9N  58.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  24/0600Z 43.5N  55.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1800Z 43.8N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0600Z 43.6N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

The National Hurricane Center is located at 11691 SW 17th Street in Miami, Florida. Its contact email is nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is located at 2525 Correa Road, Suite 250, Honolulu, Hawaii.

Its contact email is W-HFO.webmaster@noaa.gov.