Odds favor Nithya Raman win for L.A. mayor despite tight race, experts say. Here’s why – Los Angeles Times

Odds favor Nithya Raman win for L.A. mayor despite tight race, experts say. Here’s why  Los Angeles Times

As of the latest vote tallies, Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has earned a slight edge over incumbent Karen Bass in the mayoral race. But election experts say the early lead is likely a sign that Raman has what it takes to remain ahead. The ballots yet to be counted — mostly coming from vote-by-mail ballots sent on or just before election day — tend to come from younger, more progressive voters, election experts say, so they expect the next few tallies will swing further in Raman's favor. Bass is considered the more moderate of the two Democratic candidates. “The odds favor Raman at this point,” Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, said Wednesday morning.

He's a former city councilmember and county supervisor who closely tracks local elections. "I expect that her lead will expand." Of course, no one knows how the uncounted ballots will fall, but local election experts are relying on trends from previous elections. A Times poll from days before the election showed the candidates in a dead heat. There is still an estimated 37% of the vote for mayor to be counted, which translates to about 433,000 ballots, according to expected vote calculations from the Associated Press. Bass trailed Raman by just over 16,500 votes, at