Most crime figures have drastically fallen, but people don’t believe it. It’s no wonder when politicians whip up emotions and attempt to bend the law

An astounding change is happening to life in England and Wales that most people don’t know about, and when they are told they don’t believe it. Most crime, including violence, has fallen by a remarkable 90% over the past 30 years. But only 6% of people believe it, while 61% think crime is going up. This great denial is the background cause of the prison overflow crisis, as politicians (of all parties) stir up voters to demand ever higher sentences as the imaginary cure to their imaginary soaring crime.

All western European countries enjoy this same remarkable social improvement, with research over decades offering myriad reasons why: populations spending longer in education, CCTV, better security for cars and homes, and young people staying at home to play video games of fantasy crime instead of entertaining themselves with the real thing. Removing brain-harming lead from petrol and abortion of unwanted foetuses at risk of future child neglect are other possible explanations.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

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