SPC MD 2300

MD 2300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KS

Mesoscale Discussion 2300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151859Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage increasing over next 1-2 hours.
Sporadic strong gusts are possible, with some locally greater risk
for a couple of gusts to 50-65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into
south-central/east-central Kansas. Overall risk appears limited, and
a watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
the next 1-2 hours, first across portions of northwest OK into
central KS, and later this afternoon with southwest extent into the
TX Panhandle. Convective initiation is most imminent across
south-central KS where deepening cumulus and recent lightning
activity is noted. This activity is developing within a modestly
unstable boundary layer in the vicinity of a pre-frontal
trough/remnant outflow. This area is on the southern fringe of
stronger effective shear focused near/north of a surface cold front
oriented across northern/central KS into the northern TX Panhandle.
This could provide sufficient support transient organized cells and
multicells. 

Areas of strong heating have allowed temperatures to warm into the
90s, supporting very steep low-level lapse rates. While the
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space is expected to remain
modest, the well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse
rates could support sporadic strong wind gusts. Overall severe
potential appears limited/transient and a severe thunderstorm watch
is not currently anticipated.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34500252 34710258 35030239 35570183 36500082 37729920
            38479741 38749652 38679612 38439594 38189591 37879602
            37599635 36889769 35589973 34220109 33940165 33910219
            34240239 34500252 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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