9 ways US Mormons are changing, according to Pew data

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(RNS) — Christmas has come three months early, at least for me and other religion data nerds. Pew Research Center has just released a detailed 65-page report specifically about Latter-day Saints in America.

Called “Tradition and Change Among Latter-day Saints in the U.S.,” the report primarily utilizes Pew’s 2023 – 24 Religious Landscape Study, which had 515 current and 316 former members, and compares it to Pew’s data on Mormons from 2007, 2011 and 2014. This may sound like a small sample size, but it’s actually a great sample size for Mormons, who are only about 1 – 1.5% of the U.S. population. The most recent sample size for current LDS members is a little smaller than previous RLS reports, and, for former LDS members, it’s a bit bigger, likely reflecting the changes in more people leaving the church.

The margin of error for Latter-day Saints is plus or minus 6.2%, and for former Saints it’s 8.1%.

There’s a reason my headline is not of the “we’re more religious than everybody else!” variety. Folks, throughout survey history, Mormons have always been more religious than nearly everybody else. That is still the case, many of my readers will be happy to know. But RNS is a news outlet, so we focus on what is new or has changed. For that I want to compare us to our own past selves, as measured by Pew through nearly two decades.

Here are five changes happening with current members, and four among those who’ve left the church.

Current Members

1. Diversity is increasing.

Pew found that “the portion of Latter-day Saints who are White has fallen from 85% in 2007 to 72% in 2023 – 24.” What’s more, the proportion of Hispanic members has doubled (from 6% to 12%), and Black members has tripled (from 2% to 6%).

A higher percentage of current members are immigrants than in the past, or at least had parents who were immigrants. In 2007, 13% of US Latter-day Saints said either they or their parents were not born in the US. Today, that has grown to 21%.

2. Fewer LDS families have kids or teenagers.

In 2007, almost half of LDS families in the U.S. were parents of children under 18. Today, that has dropped to 37%. That’s still high for religious groups in America (and especially for Christian groups), but it’s a decline from the LDS past.

This change can’t be explained by a markedly older population. Mormons’ median age was only three years higher than it was in 2007, rising from 41 to 44. (The median age for U.S. Christian adults in general was, gulp, 54 years old.)

3. LDS women have reversed the college graduation gap.

LDS women now outstrip LDS men in earning a bachelor’s degree (40% to 34%), whereas in 2007 women lagged 8 points behind men in college graduation rates.

Women’s growing educational achievement is driving the overall increase in Latter-day Saints with a four-year degree, which is now 36%.

4. Religiosity has slightly decreased (but is still high). 

Latter-day Saints have become less religious on several measures over time, and most of that decline has happened only since the 2014 survey, as the table shows.

These are not dramatic drops, and compared to everyone else, Mormons are still acing religiosity. In fact, when Pew’s RLS was first published last year, it singled them out for excelling at daily prayer. However, LDS daily prayer has declined by nine points since 2007.

5. Political orientation is liberalizing somewhat.

Latter-day Saints are still profoundly Republican (73%), and that GOP identity is consistent across ages, education levels and gender.

However, Pew says Latter-day Saints have liberalized on some issues. Nearly half now say homosexuality should be accepted by society, which is almost double what it was in 2007 (24% to 46%). Meanwhile, national acceptance among all Americans has gone from 50% to 67% over the same period, so LDS acceptance in 2023 was still four points below the general population’s acceptance in 2007.

Mormons are holding the line on abortion, however. The percentage who think abortion should be legal in “all or most cases” has grown by only four points, from 27% to 31%.

The graph below also shows a double-digit increase in those who agree that having “more women in the workforce is a change for the better.”

Now let’s look at what the new survey shows has changed among former LDS members — starting with the reality that there are more of them.

Former Members

6. We’re losing more members.

Pew data shows that LDS retention, now at 54%, “has steadily declined since 2007, when it stood at 70%.” Moreover, “it is among the lowest levels measured among U.S. religious groups that are large enough to analyze.”

What happens after people leave Mormonism? One change is that nearly 3 in 10 adults who were raised LDS now have no religious affiliation at all. That’s twice the number Pew saw in 2007. In other words: Not only are more people leaving the church than in the past, but among those who do, fewer are joining a new religion.

7. Younger women are the most likely to disaffiliate.

Pew didn’t find any meaningful overall difference in who leaves by gender: 55% of men stay, and 54% of women. However, as I reported last month, women younger than age 49 are considerably less likely to stay than women who are older than 50 (49% and 66%, respectively). Compared to that 17-point difference, younger men were almost as likely to stay as older men (54% versus 57%).

One caveat. It’s tempting to look at this data point and the one about rising numbers of women with a bachelor’s degree and say, “Aha! It’s because more young women are getting educated that more are leaving the church.” Not so fast. Pew’s data and many other data sources have all generally confirmed that having more education tends to correlate with more frequent religious behaviors. It’s complicated.

8. Former members are less likely to be married.

People who leave Mormonism are less likely to be married than current members who were born in the church (i.e., not including converts). This is a huge difference, to the tune of 30 points (42% vs. 72%). On the flip side, former Mormons are more likely to live with a partner than lifelong members are (16% and 2^, respectively) to be divorced (17% compared to 7%) or to never have married at all (22% compared to 16%).

9. A quarter of former members identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual.

Finally, 24% of people who have left the church say they are gay, lesbian or bisexual. This is a sharp contrast to LGB identity among U.S. members who were born in the church and still identify as LDS. Among that group of lifers, only 2% are LGB.

Former members are also younger, less likely to have a bachelor’s degree and less politically conservative. Only half are Republican or lean Republican, and 80% say homosexuality should be accepted by society.

Overall, what I’m seeing in the Pew report tracks with my own research in the two Next Mormons Surveys and with recent discussions of declining LDS religiosity by Alex Bass. The bottom line is that Latter-day Saints who stay in the church are still highly religious when compared to other Americans, but quantifiably not as religious as they used to be. Meanwhile, more people are leaving the church, especially if they’re young and female. 

Regarding that last point: Frankly I’m not sure the church’s most powerful leaders — who are without exception old and male — have a strong sense of why young women are dissatisfied or what the church could do to reverse the trend. So far, the church’s responses have suggested the blame lies with young women themselves or with a broader secular culture that can be accused of luring women away.

Leaders want young women to get back with the church’s program for their lives (a program young women themselves never had a say in creating). Such predictable responses fully exculpate the institution of the church from sharing any fault. That’s not going to help. Although young women leaving religion is not unique to Mormonism, the problem is serious and complex. The church could begin with talking to women themselves about why they are leaving rather than assuming male leaders already know. 

Related:

Why are so many young women leaving Mormonism?

Do former Mormons join another religion?

10 ways Utah Mormons are a breed apart