SPC MD 2336

MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into far
east-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292326Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional mini supercells may continue to pose a risk of
a brief/weak tornado for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Cellular convection continues to evolve along the
northern periphery of low-level warm advection focused across parts
of the TX Panhandle west-southwestward into far east-central NM.
While buoyancy in this corridor is weak, a moist environment (upper
60s dewpoints) and a small clockwise-curved hodograph (sampled by
the AMA VWP) could continue to support occasional mini supercell
structures -- similar to what occurred approximately 40 miles east
of Amarillo, TX during the last hour. Any brief/weak tornado risk
should generally be associated with favorable/low-predictability
cell interactions in this corridor for the next few hours, and
overall confidence in this scenario remains low.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34930075 33970309 33980362 34120386 34330396 34540392
            34980325 35810122 35900053 35740028 35450019 35130031
            34930075 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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The Storm Prediction Center indicated that the most probable peak tornado intensity could reach 90 mph. The most probable peak wind gust was listed at up to 60 mph.

The discussion was issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, and was valid from 2326 UTC September 29 through 0130 UTC September 30.