The New Defence model: scale, speed and sovereignty – Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking – Natixis CIB

The New Defence model: scale, speed and sovereignty  Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking – Natixis CIB

In a new research paper, ‘The Defense Sector Facing the Tempo of War, Part 1’, Thierry Mestre, Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst, explores how the return … In a new research paper, ‘The Defense Sector Facing the Tempo of War, Part 1’, Thierry Mestre, Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst, explores how the return of high-intensity warfare following the Russian invasion of Ukraine is reshaping national defense priorities. Four years on, national security increasingly depends on the industrial and financial capabilities needed to adapt to a changing landscape of warfare. Following the end of the Cold War, political theorist Francis Fukuyama declared the “end of history”, marking the apparent end of great-power rivalries, with liberal democratic alliances prevailing as the universal model of governance.

In the following decades, national defense budgets experienced a scissor effect, maintaining “sample armies” characterized by highly sophisticated defense systems but severely reduced equipment volumes. The series of conflicts that followed did not challenge this model, as they were largely seen as asymmetric external conflicts against weaker states and militias. History, however, did not end. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked the start of a new historical cycle, characterized by the proliferation and compounding of conflicts across continents. The posture of the major powers – the United States, China,