The WSL so far: goal-shy Arsenal, underrated Brighton and more data pointers

The Gunners’ title hopes look over after five games as draws continue from last season while the Seagulls, actually ninth, are third for expected points The Women’s Super League table is taking shape for 2026-27. The defending champions, Manchester City, have five wins from five games but more intriguing stories lie elsewhere. Why are Arsenal struggling, who is performing better than results suggest, and in which way are two promoted teams smashing expectations? Here are three key data points. Opta made Arsenal third favourites to win the WSL before a ball was kicked.

Their win at Brighton combined with Chelsea’s draw against Aston Villa in week one meant Renée Slegers’ side rose to narrow favourites. The four games since, from which Arsenal took two points, have torpedoed their title chances. One reason for their slump is a continuation of a problem from last season. The stats section of our Arsenal pre-season preview highlighted draws in 2025-26 that they deserved to win based on expected goals. That trend has continued this season with positive xG margins of 2.2 and 1.2