Rays vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 ALCS Game 4 picks by proven model

SportsLine’s model simulated Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ALCS Game 4 matchup 10,000 times

The Cleveland Guardians will look to take command of the 2026 ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays when they meet in Game 4 on Friday night. Cleveland took a 2-1 series lead on Thursday with a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay. The Rays (98-64), who are 44-39 on the road this season, including the postseason, are looking to reach the World Series for the first time since 2020. The Guardians (85-77), who are 43-42 on their home field in 2026, including playoffs, have not reached the World Series since 2016. Right-hander Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) is the probable starter for the Rays, with righty Shawn Armstrong (2-1, 4.58 ERA) opening for Cleveland.

Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 trading bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55: First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 8 p.m. ET with a chance of light showers, winds of around 20 mph and temperatures in the low 50s. Tampa Bay is a -112 favorite on the money line (risk $112 to win $100), while Cleveland is at -104 (risk $104 to win $100) in the latest Guardians vs. Rays odds. The over/under is 6.5 total runs. Before making any Rays vs. Guardians picks, be sure to see the Rays vs. Guardians predictions and