CA's El Niño Forecast Comes With A Big North-South Question Mark – Patch

CA’s El Niño Forecast Comes With A Big North-South Question Mark  Patch

Winter in California could hold unexpected shifts this year as a powerful El Niño alters storm paths nationwide. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said this week in a new 2026-27 U.S. Winter Outlook that above-average temperatures are anticipated throughout much of the northern U.S., while heightened precipitation is projected from California through Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard. Spanning December through February, the seasonal forecast highlights the impact of an exceptionally strong El Niño. This phenomenon — driven by warm Pacific Ocean waters — reshapes air currents and storm routes over North America, often boosting southern storm activity while lowering precipitation in northern territories. “As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the forecast.

More precipitation could help replenish drought-stricken areas, but Graham cautioned that heavy rain falling on dry ground can also cause flash flooding and mudslides. The Pacific Northwest and northern California favor a warmer-than-average winter. Drier conditions are expected in parts of the northern Mountain West, with drought potentially expanding or intensifying in eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. Precipitation outlooks elsewhere, including in NorCal, remain uncertain