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We were able to escape with another win on the diamond yesterday. It wasn’t a walk in the park, but a win is a win. David Peterson allowed just one run, and Trevor Rogers allowed just one run as well, but his was in the sixth as Seyia Suzuki hit a bomb. The Orioles ended up winning the game 3-2, and really, the end result is all that matters. I’m hoping this game won’t be quite as much of a sweat as we play the Guardians and Marlins matchup.
The Cleveland Guardians are once again in a battle for the American League Central Division title. That isn’t anything all that surprising. What is a surprise is that they are battling the White Sox. That is a different story for a different article, though. The Guardians are now two games above .500 and seem to always find a way to hang around the postseason race. This team isn’t filled with a ton of superstars or guys you’d recognize, but they are a team that gets the job done. They also always seem to get the most out of their pitching staff.
Today’s starter for the Guardians is Parker Messick, who has been one of their best pitchers this season. For the year, Messick is 7-5 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has been better on the road in terms of runs allowed than he has been at home, but he has allowed seven of his nine homers on the road. His worst month of the season was in June, but he responded well as the calendar flipped to July. In his most recent start, he allowed just one earned run over five innings. He has never faced the Marlins, so he could have the upper hand against them the first time through the lineup.
This has been a dream season and run for the Miami Marlins. While it isn’t over yet, this “rebuilding” team seems like they are building or have built something special. Right now, the team is 52-42 and is 14 games above .500 at home. Perhaps what they should be most impressed by is that this team has only one player above 30 outside of their pitching staff. Sometimes, young talent clicks, and it seems like this is what has happened. They were 26-34 on May 1st, and since they’ve gone 26-8, one of the hottest teams in baseball.
There is still the lingering question of what the Marlins will do at the deadline. While they are unlikely to trade away position players, there is a big market they may not pass up for today’s starter, Sandy Alcantara. For the year, he is 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has been a better pitcher at home than on the road. He has made nine home starts and has allowed 21 earned runs there. Of those 21 earned runs, 13 came in two games. That means he has allowed eight earned runs in seven home starts. Only one Guardian’s hitter has faced Alcantara — Rhys Hoskins who is 9-for-41 against him.
The natural instinct for this game is to play the under. The Guardians are not typically a high-scoring team, but the Marlins can put some runs on the board. It would be surprising to see the over hit, but with a total of just seven, there is very little room for error. I personally don’t like betting on things like that.
On the other hand, Alcantara is elite at home. Sure, Messick has been good on the road and overall, but not quite at the level of Alcantara in home outings. Remove the two worst starts of his season at home, and he has been so dominant. Roughly 78% of the time, he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs at home this season. He is -140 to allow two or fewer earned runs in the game. I like that bet quite a bit, but I also like the Marlins to win, so I’ll play both.
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