How a strong El Niño could change Florida winter. Where it might be severe – Daytona Beach News-Journal

How a strong El Niño could change Florida winter. Where it might be severe  Daytona Beach News-Journal

Thanks to El Niño, it's been a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, although Florida was still hit by a hurricane. El Niño isn't done with Florida, or the United States, as NOAA released its 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook Oct. 15, predicting wetter-than-average conditions across much of the southern U.S., including Florida, warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern U.S. and near-normal temperatures across parts of the Southeast, including Florida. The outlook covers predictions across the U.S. for December 2026 through February 2027. The climate pattern is expected to reach "historic" levels as it continues to strengthen. There is an 83% chance of a strong to very-strong El Niño for January through March 2027, which will affect what we will see this winter, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

Florida could see a heightened risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, during late winter and early spring as a strong El Niño influences atmospheric conditions across the Southeast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's winter 2026-27 outlook favors above-average precipitation along the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic coast, while a separate discussion during an Oct. 15 National Weather Service briefing highlighted the potential for increased severe weather in northern Florida. NOAA meteorologist and branch chief John Gottschalck explained that strong El Niño events tend to create conditions favorable for severe weather