Kevin Warsh speech could offer clues on whether Fed will raise interest rates this month

Two inflation reports this week set the stage for a rate hike potentially sooner than previously expected.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh strides onstage in Bangkok on Friday morning, it will be after 11 p.m. on Thursday in New York. But investors, economists and politicians in the United States will be awake and hanging on his every word. Any speech by a Fed chair is closely scrutinized. This week’s talk has an extra dose of urgency, though, after two government reports showed inflation heating up for consumers and businesses — spurring speculation about how soon the Fed will raise interest rates to handle soaring prices. Warsh will be speaking at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, where he will be interviewed by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

The Fed chairman has repeatedly said he will not use public speaking engagements to intentionally steer the expectations of investors and markets, but his comments could nevertheless signal whether the central bank will hike rates before, or after, the Nov. 3 midterm elections. It will also be the last speech from a Fed official before policymakers enter a “blackout” period on Saturday that lasts through their next interest rate meeting, which is scheduled for Oct. 27 and 28. “Broad based” inflation “strengthens the case for an October hike,” Bank of America analysts wrote on Wednesday. “The data continue to underscore two key sources