SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will pivot southward from the Pacific Northwest
and linger over northern CA for the middle of this week. Enhanced
southwest flow southeast of the low amid dry conditions and slowly
drying fuels, will promote a fire weather concern for portions of
the Great Basin for Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. Thunderstorm
potential associated with the low exists for parts of northern CA
and southwestern OR on Day 3/Wednesday with a lightning threat
moving into the northern Rockies by Thursday. However, marginal
fuels should limit impact of lightning over the landscape through
midweek. Farther east, well above normal temperatures under a
persistent upper-ridge across the southeastern U.S. will promote
even drier fuels across the region. However, lighter winds under the
ridge and sufficient low-level moisture will limit broader fire
weather concerns through the week.

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Great Basin...
The upper low expected to be over northern CA will usher in a
corridor of 15-20 mph southwest winds over the Great Basin midweek.
The deep-layer southwest flow coupled with a dry air mass and
efficient daytime mixing should promote a fire weather threat
for portions of east-central NV both Wednesday and Thursday.
Although RH will likely fall below 10% in some valleys, marginal
fuel receptiveness will mute a more significant fire weather concern
across the area.

...Northern California, Southwest Oregon and Northern Rockies... 
Thunderstorms associated with the upper low are expected Day
3/Wednesday across northern CA and southwestern OR, with a
thunderstorm threat extending into the northern Rockies by
D4/Thursday. Fuels continue to be a limiting factor in introducing
dry thunderstorm probabilities midweek with forecast ERC values only
climbing towards the 70th percentile by the end of the week.

..Williams.. 09/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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