In this fragmented but supposedly mild country, watching and talking about the weather forecast is meant to be a reassuring, unifying activity. Collectively, we have created and maintained a national climate narrative of small disappointments and pleasures. The first weather forecaster to appear on British TV, George Cowling, made his debut on the BBC in January 1954, predicting that “tomorrow would be rather windy”, but “a good day to hang out the washing”. For most of the 72 years since, such brief, carefully calibrated broadcasts have provided people from Aberdeen to Penzance with practical information, small talk and minor grumbles about essentially the same situation: living in a country where the weather is constantly changing, in a paradoxically unchanging way.

Yet like the traditional British climate, that common weather culture may now be evaporating. “Met Office considers issuing red ‘extreme heat warning’ across Britain while nation enjoys ‘incredible summer’,” said the headline above the forecast on the GB News website on Monday, caught between terror and delight at the latest heatwave. As the climate crisis has affected this country in more and more unmistakable but uneven ways, TV weather forecasters have increasingly struggled to find the right language to describe this transformation’s daily consequences. Their struggle influences and exemplifies that of many Britons to understand, and work out what we think about, the apparent end of the weather patterns we expected to shape our whole lives.

Andy Beckett is a Guardian columnist

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 131459
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
300 PM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026
 
...CRISTOBAL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 36.8W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1018 MB...30.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Cristobal was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 36.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph
(26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristobal is expected to dissipate later tonight. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1018 mb (30.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KBWC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi

000
FONT13 KNHC 131459
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032026               
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT43 KNHC 131459
TCDAT3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
300 PM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026
 
Cristobal is entrenched in a hostile environment, with cool SSTs, 
strong northerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. 
Organized convection has been absent since around 21-22z yesterday 
and all that remains is remnant low devoid of convection. The 
initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this advisory.

The remnant low will continue moving rapidly northeastward to 
east-northeastward today before the remnant low becomes absorbed 
into the broader flow associated with a deepening upper-level low 
over Atlantic Canada. This is the last advisory issued by the 
National Hurricane Center on this system.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 39.4N  36.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/0000Z 41.0N  34.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130846
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026
 
...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 38.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 38.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through 
today.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate later
today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

000
WTNT23 KNHC 130846
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032026
0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  38.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  38.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N  38.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.1N  36.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N  38.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN

660 
FONT13 KNHC 130847
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032026               
0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN

619 
WTNT43 KNHC 130847
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026
 
Recent OSCAT data showed that Cristobal has weaken to a tropical
depression with max winds around 30 kt. The cyclone continues to
have a lack of deep convection based on satellite images. The most
current TAFB intensity estimates with a Final T number of 1.5 and
maximum winds of 30 kt. As a result, the initial intensity has
been brought down to 30 kt for this advisory.
 
Based on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the 
storm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is 
expected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection 
will make a comeback.  Thus, the NHC forecast now calls for 
Cristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h, with 
dissipation following soon after. 
 
The current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the
next 12 h, and barely any changes have been made to the previous NHC
track prediction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 38.6N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 40.1N  36.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven