Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Greg Abbott leads for governor

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but within the margin of error, according to a new poll, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a wider lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the contest for governor, as economic issues and immigration drive voter decision-making. The new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll shows Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Another 8% of potential voters were still up for grabs in the race — just as tens of millions of dollars in advertising from Republican groups began to flood into the state.

Abbott took 48% to Hinojosa’s 41% in the gubernatorial race, a broader edge that’s also technically within the margin of error. The survey effort also zeroed in on Latinos in Texas, shows how that group of voters has swung back to the left since President Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024, according to NBC News exit polling. Both Talarico and Hinojosa led with Latinos by double digits, with Talarico up 18 points (54%-36%) and Hinojosa up 13 points (52%-39%). But that may still fall short of the benchmark the candidates would need to pull out a victory in a state that