Arch Manning hasn't looked like a first-rounder through three games in 2026, let alone a No. 1 pick

The underlying numbers explain why there’s reason for concern — but not reason to panic

We're only three games into Arch Manning's 2026 season at Texas, so nothing is settled. But if this start is any indication of what the next three months will look like, Manning has not resembled what we've come to expect from quarterbacks taken in the first round — forget No. 1 overall. In fact, when you compare Manning's start to the final college seasons of the 24 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2019-25, the gap is equal parts glaring and worrisome. Because people get in their feelings about such things, I'll just remind you: This doesn't mean we're required to write off Manning as a first-round prospect.

It does mean that the areas where we wanted to see improvement and consistency this season have instead stagnated or regressed. And when compared to recent first-round QBs, he ranks near the bottom. This season in games against Texas State, Ohio State and UTSA, Manning is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. The median for those 24 recent first-round QBs in their final college seasons was 9.3. In fact, Daniel Jones, who was the sixth-overall pick in 2019, is the only passer in the group whose final college season was also as low as 6.8. Here's what Manning's start looks like compared to that first-round group: The table tells a simple story: