South Africa-Australia set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen?

South Africa set up an epic final day of their decisive Test against Australia by batting throughout the fourth day. What does history suggest could happen? Wiaan Mulder reached his century during a final-wicket partnership with Kagiso Rabada Having effectively began day four on 40-4, South Africa batted on and on against Australia in Cape Town to move from a position where defeat looked likely to one where a series victory is a real possibility. In being bowled out for 387 in the final over – with Ryan Rickelton making 101 and Wiaan Mulder last man out for a brilliant 115 – South Africa set the tourists a target of 288 for victory.

WinViz – the tool analysts CricViz use to predict such results – gives the hosts a 54% chance of victory. Australia's target is such that should they chase it on day five, it would be the second-highest fourth-innings chase in the 62 previous Tests on this famous ground. They chased 331 for a four-wicket win in an epic Test against the Proteas in 2002, when Ricky Ponting hit a brilliant 100 not out. There have been five other scores above 288 in the fourth innings at Newlands – all of which were made in defeats or when salvaging a draw. For much of the afternoon and evening