MD 2287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 122044Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of at least marginally severe hail or wind may
develop across most of northeast Kansas, perhaps western Missouri
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite northeasterly boundary-layer winds and cool
temperatures, sporadic elevated storms have affected the region for
much of the day. Recently, a stronger/larger area of storms has
developed, and produced a wind gust of 51 kt at Concordia, KS.
Models suggest up to 2000 J/kg elevated MUCAPE is present currently.

Aiding storm intensity are steep lapse rates aloft and favorable
effective shear over 40 kt. Given the size of the existing storm
cluster, this zone bears watching, with possible watch consideration
downstream over the next hour or so.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39739725 39369563 39139527 38949517 38549516 38349555
            38579620 38869712 39119756 39309767 39609757 39739725 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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