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MD 2286 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Areas affected...southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 121952Z - 122145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop after 21Z from
the northeast Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma and southwest
Kansas. Locally damaging wind and hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extends from the TX
Panhandle into southwest and central KS, with a secondary
boundary/dying outflow from northwest OK into east-central OK.
Easterly surface winds prevail over much of southern KS and northern
OK, with dewpoints in the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. Heating of
this moist axis continues as well, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg.
Meanwhile, very hot temperatures exist to the south of the old
outflow from central into southwest OK, with several locations over
105 F. Southerly winds prevail across this region, and surface
convergence is maximized across northwest OK/eastern Panhandles and
into southwest KS.
Visible imagery already shows towering CU from northwest OK into
north-central OK, with recent higher-based CU over the TX Panhandle.
Models indicate storms developing by 21Z within this zone, with
movement/additional development occurring eastward through the early
evening.
Shear is weak over southern areas, but does increase into KS. Given
the steep lapse rate profiles and hot temperatures near the surface
trough, initial high-based storms may produce severe gusts with
multicellular storm mode. New development may propagate
northeastward through the evening, with a few cells producing hail
along with strong to severe gusts.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35990120 36890026 37709949 38089898 38239805 38149707
37909680 37599666 37209668 36729686 36249718 36069751
35979779 35959794 36049814 36119852 36119894 35889970
35630065 35740125 35990120
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
