El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters – NOAA (.gov)

El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters  NOAA (.gov)

Prolonged period of above-average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific expected to peak this winter Satellite imagery showing the difference from average sea surface temperatures at the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean (depicted using various shades of red and orange for warmth) during the first week of June 2026, as compared with the baseline used by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites ) NOAA’s National Weather Service announced today that El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific, and issued an El Nino Advisory. El Nino, the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall.

Forecasters predict a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0°C in the Nino-monitored region of the Pacific. If this threshold is surpassed, NOAA considers the event a “very strong” El Nino. NOAA declares an El Nino (Spanish for “little boy”) has formed when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5°C above average for several consecutive months. Additionally, NOAA monitors the atmosphere above this region of the Pacific, looking for a pattern called the Walker Circulation, a massive east-to-west air flow driven by the temperature and pressure differences between the warm western and cool eastern oceans. When the Walker Circulation breaks down and warmer water shifts east toward South America,