Eritrea’s Buffer is Collapsing: What Comes Next? – horn review

Eritrea’s Buffer is Collapsing: What Comes Next?  horn review

Ethiopian National Defense Force’s capture of Mekelle, if sustained, may prove to be more consequential than another battlefield reversal in northern Ethiopia. It could mark the collapse of the strategic buffer that Eritrea has relied upon for the past two years and, with it, a… Ethiopian National Defense Force’s capture of Mekelle, if sustained, may prove to be more consequential than another battlefield reversal in northern Ethiopia. It could mark the collapse of the strategic buffer that Eritrea has relied upon for the past two years and, with it, a fundamental change in the security equation between Addis Ababa and Asmara. For much of this period, Eritrea has been able to maintain strategic distance from a direct confrontation with Ethiopia.

The conflict remained largely inside Ethiopian territory, while Eritrean forces retained military depth and influence along the northern Tigray frontier. That arrangement gave Asmara a degree of strategic insulation. Eritrea could shape developments south of its border without necessarily having to fight the Ethiopian federal army directly on Eritrean soil. That space is now shrinking. Hence, in addition to entering Ethiopian territory through the Assab-Bure front to the border Afar towns of Berehale and Dallool, Eritrean forces advanced toward Adigrat and reportedly reached positions roughly 20 kilometres into Adigrat yesterday. Now one can confidently say the geography of the conflict