If President Trump has one true skill, it is conjuring up alternate realities and getting his supporters to accept them. The examples are everywhere: dismissing stories he doesn’t like as “fake news” from corrupt media, casting the January 6 rioters as victims, election denial. After he baselessly insisted that there had been rampant mail-in voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, 11 states made mail-voting access more restrictive. His repeated false claims in 2024 that Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, were eating pets led to real threats against the community. Trump builds a world, and by virtue of his power and influence, all of us end up living in it in some way or another.

That era may be coming to a close, in large part because of the way he and his administration have bungled the war in Iran. Trump seems unable to spin this conflict, divert sufficient attention away from it with a new controversy, or end it outright. His social-media posts, which once acted as a de facto assignment editor for the mainstream media, no longer command the same attention or respect. Now, interspersed with AI slop and inexplicable middle-of-the-night reposting binges, Trump’s Truth Social screeds sound more like the fevered ramblings of a radicalized Facebook uncle. For the past five months, he’s been trying to convince the American public (or at least his Truth Social followers) that the war is over, or ending, or a rousing success. His administration is even retroactively changing on the Pentagon’s website the number of American service members who have died in the conflict. But no one seems to be falling for it. His posts don’t have the juice. His alternate universe is no match for the harsh reality of war.

[Read: The war is lost. Now fix what it broke.]

In the Trumpian vision of the world, the U.S. invasion of Iran was not only necessary but also urgent: In February, Trump alleged that Iran was attempting to rebuild its nuclear-weapons program and had continued developing long-range missiles that were threatening U.S. allies and could reach the United States “soon.” But Trump’s claim is dubious, at least according to a March 2025 U.S. intelligence assessment, which noted that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” Experts also cast doubt on the strength of Iran’s missiles: “There is little evidence that Iran could build missiles that reach the United States in the near future,” Emma Sandifer of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation told FactCheck.org in March.

Justifications aside, the attacks, which were not authorized by Congress, were immediately unpopular with Trump’s base, which elected him in part for his isolationist tendencies. (On Election Night 2024, Trump even remarked, “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”) Iran’s predictable retaliation, closing the Strait of Hormuz and drastically cutting off crucial supply routes for oil and other natural resources, subsequently drove up prices for goods around the world—immediately exacerbating the unpopularity of the conflict and shocking the markets. The fallout appeared to take Trump by surprise, and in the early weeks of the war, he used his bully pulpit for damage control: On March 9, with Brent-crude futures spiking to nearly $120 a barrel, he gave an interview to CBS News suggesting that the “war is very complete, pretty much.” Oil futures swiftly plunged to less than $90 a barrel.

Trump used this tactic repeatedly. On March 20, he posted on Truth Social that the U.S. was “close to meeting our objectives” in Iran. Oil futures dropped. On March 23, he signaled that discussions between the U.S. and Iran were productive, leading Brent crude futures to plummet by 13 percent. Each time, Trump offered no real proof of his claims, yet markets responded to his version of the story. An NBC News analysis found 32 examples of the president suggesting that the war was coming to a close. “We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!” Trump posted on March 7, in response to the United Kingdom considering sending military support. In late March, Trump posted that operations were “winding down”; that same day, he rejected a suggestion from Pope Leo that there should be a cease-fire. In early April, he posted that Iran had asked for a cease-fire; later, Iran called his claims “false and baseless.”

Tenuous agreements between the U.S. and Iran have been broken repeatedly. On July 12, the U.S. resumed heavy air strikes on Iran following an Iranian attack on a container ship in the region. As my colleagues Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire recently reported, “The Trump administration is back at war. It just doesn’t want to admit it.” The commander in chief has become the boy who cried “Mission accomplished.”

[Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire: War by any other name]

As a result, Trump’s posts have become more erratic. On June 23, in response to rising gas prices, Trump posted on Truth Social, in all caps, to nobody in particular, “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” And his posts no longer seem as able to influence the market. A recent report from Axios claimed that bond-market traders have stopped paying strict attention to Trump’s social-media feeds to read the economic tea leaves: “Researchers from JPMorgan show that for the most part, his social media posts are noise, with very little ability to move the market.”

And yet, Trump is attempting to double down. Last week, Truth Social announced that it plans to sell early access to posts from certain accounts (presumably including the president’s) and is considering charging as much as $100,000 a month. The clear implication is that Trump or his close associates will share government news that will move markets, giving paying subscribers a distinct first-mover advantage. Trump currently owns 41 percent of the stock through a family-run trust in Trump Media and Technology Group, the owner of Truth Social. Thus, the decision to charge access is akin to the president’s family profiting off his position as leader of the free world. (Trump Media and Technology Group did not respond to a request for comment.)

Trump is president, so obviously, any statement he makes attracts attention. But simply being president has never been Trump’s superpower. His chief skill, first as a mogul with an uneven history and then as a politician, is molding his image in a way that reflects how he sees himself: as the genius, adored, yet constantly victimized center of the universe. This, of course, is delusional. Yet somehow, he’s managed to make that fantasy at least partially real: He has, after all, been the main, divisive figure in American life for more than a decade.

With Trump, it can feel as if there are no limits—to his shamelessness, his lies, his graft, or his ability to sow chaos, lose interest, and move on to the next outrage. But it’s possible that we’re finally glimpsing the limitations of his ability to control the narrative. For too long, Trump has been the force that made reality feel flimsy, pliable. But in the Iran conflict, he’s met an immovable object. Now reality may just be catching up.