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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level high will begin to extend and shift westward from the Southwest to coastal southern California. Upper-level heights will rise across much of the West through the day, but an upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late in the period. The onshore surface pressure gradient across the Cascades will strengthen with lee troughing to the east of the Cascades and extending down along the northern Sierra. A thermal trough will extend out of the Desert Southwest into the central Great Basin. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop across portions of the northern Great Basin and extend to the Four Corners region. PWAT values of 0.5-0.9" associated with mostly mid-level moisture across the region along with a deep, well mixed boundary layer and storm motions of 15-25 knots will help limit precipitation. A weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to move across portions of the Great Basin, which will help increase storm development and organization and lead to potentially severe outflow winds. Wetter storms are likely, especially from central/northeast Oregon extending into northern Utah, but the IsoDryT area was maintained given the likelihood of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, receptive fuels, and likely scattered thunderstorm coverage. Smoke in Colorado into the Four Corners could inhibit thunderstorm development and will be monitored for the Day 1 update. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of eastern Washington, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to include an additional IsoDryT area. Westerly sustained winds of 12-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 12-25% are likely in portions of the Cascades Gaps onto the Columbia Basin and from south-central Oregon extending south along the Sierra Front. Southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15% are expected across the southern Great Basin/vicinity. These conditions will be more pronounced along thermal trough extensions and under slightly stronger mid-level flow (20-30 knots). ..Nauslar.. 07/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
