The Greens appeal to young and progressive voters here on defence, rent controls and North Sea oil. The Burnham bounce may be about to hit an obstacle

You might think a byelection showdown between two progressive parties is unimportant when the deep struggle for the national heart is between the right bloc and the left – but the result in Holborn and St Pancras matters. It matters for Andy Burnham and Labour because this is a test of the Burnham bounce: he saw off the right in Makerfield – can he win over the left too? Can he show he has enthusiastic approval from voters in southern constituencies as well as those in the north?

For the Greens it matters almost existentially because failing here could send them and their leader, Zack Polanski, back to the political fringes. Holborn and St Pancras, neighbouring Westminster, was vacated (vengefully) by Keir Starmer last week. This plum forever-Labour constituency has attracted 96 Labour applications for selection day on Wednesday, though not, it seems, nationally recognised names.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

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