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The likelihood of the RBA raising interest rates has fallen. Have we finally come to our senses? | Greg Jericho

One Place News
Opinion & Analysis
July 29, 2026
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The latest inflation figures have put off the expectation of another rate rise until early next year – unless we look for an excuse for the RBA to move earlier

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The June inflation rate of 3.8% ended any real prospect of a rate rise next month, despite investors assuming the Reserve Bank would rather raise rates than not.

There is a certain ghoulishness when it comes to economics and especially inflation. A “good” number will inevitably be dull news, whereas a bad number – one that is higher than expected or just higher – can lead to all manner of gnashing of teeth and wailing as the topic quickly shifts to interest rates.