Warm, wet winter in store for California. Here's what to know. – SFGATE

Warm, wet winter in store for California. Here’s what to know.  SFGATE

Winter is coming, and it looks warm and wet in California, according to new data. In a winter outlook published on Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provided national temperature and precipitation forecasts for December, January and February. The new outlook features how El Niño, the climate phenomenon that emerged in June and could reach historic strength this year, will influence winter weather. “As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in a statement.

“While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.” In California, meteorologists have expected El Niño to tip the odds in favor of a wetter season, especially in the southern part of the state. Sure enough, the outlook shows a 50% to 60% chance that there will be above-normal precipitation for much of California, from the Bay Area to the southern border. North of the Bay Area, that probability drops to 40% to 50%;