Chelsea’s fine finishing has them flying high – but how long can it last?

Despite being at opposite ends of the table, according to expected points data, Chelsea have performed worse than Saturday’s opponents Manchester United. Despite being at opposite ends of the table, according to Opta’s expected points model, Chelsea have performed worse than Saturday’s opponents Manchester United Michael Carrick will arrive at Stamford Bridge on Saturday with the air of a dead man walking. Yet despite Manchester United being fifth-bottom of the Premier League and Chelsea fifth-top, the Blues have performed worse this season according to Opta’s expected points model.

Is there a glitch in the matrix? Has the fabled supercomputer clicked on a suspicious link? Even though the margin between their data is small, it feels unthinkable that Chelsea could be below United’s level. That is until you review a few statistics. Xabi Alonso’s side held healthy expected goal margins in their wins over Fulham, Brighton and Everton, but were heavily outgunned against Arsenal and