SPC MD 2281

MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA


Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111937Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis and visible satellite
imagery indicate a stationary boundary extending from far
northeastern NC into south-central VA. Here, continued diurnal
heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is
yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy. Despite the stronger
midlevel flow and related deep-layer shear being displaced slightly
to the north, this boundary should continue to provide a focus for
loosely organized thunderstorm clusters through the remainder of the
afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will promote locally
damaging wind gusts with the stronger clusters that evolve, and
isolated/marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with any
favorable cell/boundary interactions.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37097985 37607966 37867930 37887887 37697838 37207744
            36947673 36627642 36257656 35937706 35927751 36137858
            36527941 36837974 37097985 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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