MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 2282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-South
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112024Z - 112300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage
through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing a few locally damaging
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Preceding a convectively augmented midlevel trough
moving slowly eastward across the Ozarks, isolated thunderstorms are
evolving along a north/south-oriented composite outflow/stationary
boundary in far eastern AR. Ahead of this activity, continued
diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will further destabilize
the pre-convective air mass, though overall buoyancy will be limited
by poor midlevel lapse rates. Nevertheless, the relatively focused
area of forcing for ascent and weakly veering wind profile
accompanying/trailing a remnant MCV could promote a few strong
storms over the next few hours. The primary concern will be locally
damaging wind gusts with any loosely organized clusters that develop
through this evening.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35329051 35779018 36328990 36708955 36858914 36868881
36608823 36198803 35648814 34498889 34058943 34039006
34269046 34469072 34729077 35329051
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH







